Gold price today | June 20 | Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD Holds Steady Below $3,400 Amid Fed’s Hawkish Outlook and Geopolitical Jitters
June 20, 2025 | Gold price today | CreditSamadhaan.com Market Desk | Commodities & Geopolitical Insights
Gold (XAU/USD) continues to tread water beneath the critical $3,400 mark, caught between conflicting market forces of geopolitical anxiety and a surprisingly hawkish U.S. Federal Reserve. As investors await clarity on a potential military strike by the United States against Iran, the yellow metal finds both support and resistance in a tightly coiled range.
Market Snapshot: Fed’s Forecast and Global Uncertainty Stall Gold’s Advance
On Wednesday, the U.S. Federal Reserve chose to maintain its benchmark interest rate between 4.25% and 4.50% for a fourth consecutive policy meeting. However, the central bank surprised markets by raising its long-term interest rate projections—signaling an extended tightening cycle well into 2026 and 2027. According to the updated Summary of Economic Projections, the inflation targets have also been revised upward to 3.6% for 2026 and 3.4% for 2027, driven in part by inflationary pressures linked to renewed tariff policies under President Donald Trump’s administration.
This long-term hawkish tilt dampens the bullish momentum in gold. While gold typically performs well during high-inflation periods, it tends to struggle in high interest rate environments as it does not offer yield—making assets like U.S. Treasuries more attractive in comparison.
Geopolitical Risk: Gold Finds Support Amid Middle East Tensions | Gold price today
On the other side of the spectrum, heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are providing a strong undercurrent of support for gold’s safe-haven appeal. The United States is reportedly weighing military action against Iran, with senior officials preparing for possible airstrikes in the coming days. This comes amid growing global concerns over Iran’s ongoing conflict with Israel and alleged nuclear ambitions.
Speaking to NBC News, President Trump issued a cryptic yet telling statement regarding the potential strike:
“I may do it. I may not do it.”
This ambiguity has stoked fear in the financial markets, prompting investors to hedge their bets with gold and other risk-off assets.
Technical Analysis: Ascending Triangle Signals Volatility Break Ahead
From a technical perspective, gold remains locked in a classic Ascending Triangle pattern on the daily chart—typically a bullish continuation formation. The pattern reflects a period of price compression, with horizontal resistance around $3,500 (April 22 high) and a rising trendline support stemming from the April 7 low of $2,957.
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Key Support: The 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), currently hovering near $3,350, continues to act as a dynamic support level.
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Momentum Indicator: The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is struggling to surpass the 60.00 threshold. A decisive breakout above this level would likely signal renewed bullish momentum.
Upside Targets:
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A breakout above the $3,500 psychological barrier could send gold into uncharted territory, with potential resistance seen at $3,550 and $3,600.
Downside Risks:
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A breakdown below the May 29 low of $3,245 could expose gold to a deeper retracement toward $3,200, and if breached, the May 15 low of $3,121 becomes the next key support.
What’s Next for Gold? | Gold price today
In the immediate term, traders are advised to monitor two key themes:
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Geopolitical Developments: Any confirmation of U.S. military action against Iran could send gold prices soaring as demand for safe-haven assets intensifies.
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Economic Commentary: Further statements from Fed officials regarding the long-term rate trajectory could sway sentiment in favor of the U.S. dollar, indirectly affecting gold.
Market Sentiment: Consolidation Now, Breakout Next?
Gold is currently consolidating—balancing fear and fundamentals. The next major move hinges on whether geopolitical sparks ignite or cooler monetary commentary from the Fed tempers inflation concerns.
Until then, the metal’s $3,350–$3,400 range may act as the primary battleground for bulls and bears alike.
Editor’s Take: What This Means for Indian Investors| Gold price today
For Indian investors tracking global gold cues, volatility is opportunity. With rupee fluctuations and import duties also at play, local prices may not mirror international trends exactly but will broadly follow sentiment. Given the current mix of inflation fears and geopolitical tension, staggered buying on dips remains a prudent approach for long-term holders.
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📌 Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only. The views and analysis are editorial interpretations based on available market data. Readers are advised to consult with certified financial advisors before making investment decisions. CreditSamadhaan.com is not liable for investment actions taken based on this content.
